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 false discovery



ROOFS: RObust biOmarker Feature Selection

Bakhmach, Anastasiia, Dufossé, Paul, Vaglio, Andrea, Monville, Florence, Greillier, Laurent, Barlési, Fabrice, Benzekry, Sébastien

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Feature selection (FS) is essential for biomarker discovery and in the analysis of biomedical datasets. However, challenges such as high-dimensional feature space, low sample size, multicollinearity, and missing values make FS non-trivial. Moreover, FS performances vary across datasets and predictive tasks. We propose roofs, a Python package available at https://gitlab.inria.fr/compo/roofs, designed to help researchers in the choice of FS method adapted to their problem. Roofs benchmarks multiple FS methods on the user's data and generates reports that summarize a comprehensive set of evaluation metrics, including downstream predictive performance estimated using optimism correction, stability, reliability of individual features, and true positive and false positive rates assessed on semi-synthetic data with a simulated outcome. We demonstrate the utility of roofs on data from the PIONeeR clinical trial, aimed at identifying predictors of resistance to anti-PD-(L)1 immunotherapy in lung cancer. The PIONeeR dataset contained 374 multi-source blood and tumor biomarkers from 435 patients. A reduced subset of 214 features was obtained through iterative variance inflation factor pre-filtering. Of the 34 FS methods gathered in roofs, we evaluated 23 in combination with 11 classifiers (253 models in total) and identified a filter based on the union of Benjamini-Hochberg false discovery rate-adjusted p-values from t-test and logistic regression as the optimal approach, outperforming other methods including the widely used LASSO. We conclude that comprehensive benchmarking with roofs has the potential to improve the robustness and reproducibility of FS discoveries and increase the translational value of clinical models.


NeuralFDR: Learning Discovery Thresholds from Hypothesis Features

Fei Xia, Martin J. Zhang, James Y. Zou, David Tse

Neural Information Processing Systems

As datasets grow richer, an important challenge is to leverage the full features in the data to maximize the number of useful discoveries while controlling for false positives. We address this problem in the context of multiple hypotheses testing, where for each hypothesis, we observe a p-value along with a set of features specific to that hypothesis. For example, in genetic association studies, each hypothesis tests the correlation between a variant and the trait.




AICO: Feature Significance Tests for Supervised Learning

Giesecke, Kay, Horel, Enguerrand, Jirachotkulthorn, Chartsiri

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The opacity of many supervised learning algorithms remains a key challenge, hindering scientific discovery and limiting broader deployment -- particularly in high-stakes domains. This paper develops model- and distribution-agnostic significance tests to assess the influence of input features in any regression or classification algorithm. Our method evaluates a feature's incremental contribution to model performance by masking its values across samples. Under the null hypothesis, the distribution of performance differences across a test set has a non-positive median. We construct a uniformly most powerful, randomized sign test for this median, yielding exact p-values for assessing feature significance and confidence intervals with exact coverage for estimating population-level feature importance. The approach requires minimal assumptions, avoids model retraining or auxiliary models, and remains computationally efficient even for large-scale, high-dimensional settings. Experiments on synthetic tasks validate its statistical and computational advantages, and applications to real-world data illustrate its practical utility.


NeuralFDR: Learning Discovery Thresholds from Hypothesis Features

Fei Xia, Martin J. Zhang, James Y. Zou, David Tse

Neural Information Processing Systems

As datasets grow richer, an important challenge is to leverage the full features in the data to maximize the number of useful discoveries while controlling for false positives. We address this problem in the context of multiple hypotheses testing, where for each hypothesis, we observe a p-value along with a set of features specific to that hypothesis. For example, in genetic association studies, each hypothesis tests the correlation between a variant and the trait. We have a rich set of features for each variant (e.g. its location, conservation, epigenetics etc.) which could inform how likely the variant is to have a true association. However popular empirically-validated testing approaches, such as Benjamini-Hochberg's procedure (BH) and independent hypothesis weighting (IHW), either ignore these features or assume that the features are categorical or uni-variate. We propose a new algorithm, NeuralFDR, which automatically learns a discovery threshold as a function of all the hypothesis features. We parametrize the discovery threshold as a neural network, which enables flexible handling of multi-dimensional discrete and continuous features as well as efficient end-to-end optimization. We prove that NeuralFDR has strong false discovery rate (FDR) guarantees, and show that it makes substantially more discoveries in synthetic and real datasets. Moreover, we demonstrate that the learned discovery threshold is directly interpretable.


Reducing False Discoveries in Statistically-Significant Regional-Colocation Mining: A Summary of Results

Ghosh, Subhankar, Gupta, Jayant, Sharma, Arun, An, Shuai, Shekhar, Shashi

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Given a set \emph{S} of spatial feature types, its feature instances, a study area, and a neighbor relationship, the goal is to find pairs $<$a region ($r_{g}$), a subset \emph{C} of \emph{S}$>$ such that \emph{C} is a statistically significant regional-colocation pattern in $r_{g}$. This problem is important for applications in various domains including ecology, economics, and sociology. The problem is computationally challenging due to the exponential number of regional colocation patterns and candidate regions. Previously, we proposed a miner \cite{10.1145/3557989.3566158} that finds statistically significant regional colocation patterns. However, the numerous simultaneous statistical inferences raise the risk of false discoveries (also known as the multiple comparisons problem) and carry a high computational cost. We propose a novel algorithm, namely, multiple comparisons regional colocation miner (MultComp-RCM) which uses a Bonferroni correction. Theoretical analysis, experimental evaluation, and case study results show that the proposed method reduces both the false discovery rate and computational cost.


Lag selection and estimation of stable parameters for multiple autoregressive processes through convex programming

Chakraborty, Somnath, Lederer, Johannes, von Sachs, Rainer

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Motivated by a variety of applications, high-dimensional time series have become an active topic of research. In particular, several methods and finite-sample theories for individual stable autoregressive processes with known lag have become available very recently. We, instead, consider multiple stable autoregressive processes that share an unknown lag. We use information across the different processes to simultaneously select the lag and estimate the parameters. We prove that the estimated process is stable, and we establish rates for the forecasting error that can outmatch the known rate in our setting. Our insights on the lag selection and the stability are also of interest for the case of individual autoregressive processes.


Error Controlled Feature Selection for Ultrahigh Dimensional and Highly Correlated Feature Space Using Deep Learning

Ganguli, Arkaprabha, Todem, David, Maiti, Tapabrata

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In recent years, deep learning has been at the center of analytics due to its impressive empirical success in analyzing complex data objects. Despite this success, most of the existing tools behave like black-box machines, thus the increasing interest in interpretable, reliable, and robust deep learning models applicable to a broad class of applications. Feature-selected deep learning has emerged as a promising tool in this realm. However, the recent developments do not accommodate ultra-high dimensional and highly correlated features, in addition to the high noise level. In this article, we propose a novel screening and cleaning method with the aid of deep learning for a data-adaptive multi-resolutional discovery of highly correlated predictors with a controlled error rate. Extensive empirical evaluations over a wide range of simulated scenarios and several real datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in achieving high power while keeping the false discovery rate at a minimum.